Active Pilot · Updated Monthly

How much will the Honolulu rail actually cost?

One claim, tracked over time with full provenance. Every number on this page links to a specific page and table in an official HART document — and every change is logged.

Total Project Cost — Reported
$10.08B
Stable since the 2022 Recovery Plan baseline. $6.75B incurred to date; $3.33B remaining.
SourceApril 2026 MPR, p.34
Versionv0.5 · June 2026
CutoffIncurred cumulative through 04/30/2026
Evidence18 primary sources · 6 versions
Why this pilot matters

The Honolulu rail project is one of Hawaiʻi's most significant public infrastructure efforts — and one of its most debated.

Over time, public claims about cost, funding, timeline, scope, and accountability have changed across reports, official documents, public statements, and news coverage. Caelum's HART pilot asks a simple question:

How do we preserve the memory of a public claim as it changes over time?

This truth map tracks a real civic claim, connects it to primary sources, preserves versions, and shows how public knowledge evolves.

The goal is not to decide the final truth of the project. The goal is to preserve what truth needs in order to be judged.

The financial picture

Four questions. Four answers.

A structured, auditable record — each metric drawn from the same primary source and labeled as reported or derived.

1Where are we financially?
$6.75B
Incurred to date
Total cost$10.08B
Remaining$3.33B
Reported · p.34
2Where is cost heading?
$10.08B
Current forecast
2012 est.$5.1B
2017 rev.$8.2B
Stable since 2022
3Do we have the money?
Balanced
Funding position
Authorized$10.08B
Forecast$10.08B
FTA · GET · City
4When will it be done?
2031
Revenue service date
Phase 12023 ✓
City Center2031
Schedule Rev. 8
How far along?

Two ways to measure progress

The same incurred figure ($6.75B) produces two different percentages depending on the denominator. We show both, clearly labeled, rather than picking one.

Of Total Project Cost ($10.08B) 66.99%
$6.75B incurred ÷ $10.08B total project cost. The headline "how much of the whole project is paid for" figure.
Of EAC base cost, excl. contingency 75.45%
As stated in the April 2026 MPR (p.34). Excludes contingency, so the denominator is smaller and the percentage higher. Both are correct; they answer different questions.
The forecast over time

How the estimate has moved

2012
$5.1B
Original estimate
2017
$8.2B
Scope revision
2022 → now
$10.08B
Recovery Plan baseline · stable
Primary source receipts

Verify it yourself

The point of a truth map is that you don't have to take our word for it. Every number traces to these sources.

Change log · trust with memory

What changed, and why

Every revision is preserved — never overwritten. This is the record that lets the claim be trusted over time.

v0.5Jun 2026+$46.82M incurred
Mar 2026 MPR → Apr 2026 MPR
April 2026 Monthly Progress Report. Incurred-to-date increased to $6.751B (75.45% of EAC base cost). Source: p.34 Total Project Cost table and p.4 Summary.
v0.4May 2026+$63.12M incurred
Jan 2026 MPR → Mar 2026 MPR
March 2026 Monthly Progress Report. Incurred-to-date increased to $6.704B (74.98% of EAC base cost).
v0.3Mar 2026+$39.75M incurred
Dec 2025 MPR → Jan 2026 MPR
January 2026 Monthly Progress Report. Incurred-to-date increased to $6.641B (74.68% of EAC base cost).
v0.2Feb 2026+$66.95M incurred
Nov 2025 MPR → Dec 2025 MPR
December 2025 Monthly Progress Report. Incurred-to-date increased to $6.601B (74.23% of EAC base cost).
v0.1Jan 2026+$51.26M incurred
Oct 2025 MPR → Nov 2025 MPR
November 2025 Monthly Progress Report. Incurred-to-date reached $6.534B (73.48% of EAC base cost).
v0.0Dec 2025Baseline
Pilot launch
Initial entry. Baseline established from the October 2025 Monthly Progress Report.
Definitions

What the numbers mean

Incurred to Date Life-to-date

Cumulative incurred costs through the reporting cutoff, per HART's Monthly Progress Report definition. The MPR may specify inclusions/exclusions (e.g. third-party reimbursement costs); we adopt the definition as stated in the cited source.

Remaining to Complete Derived

A derived value from the same primary-source table: Current Forecast "Total Project Cost" − "Incurred to Date." We label this as derived unless the primary source explicitly reports a "cost to complete" line item.

Traceable · Verifiable · Accountable

Caelum does not determine truth. It preserves the record that allows truth to be evaluated.

Each number links to a specific page and section in an official HART document. Any change produces a visible, auditable log entry. That is what trust with memory looks like in practice.